Global Warming by Roger King 

Table of Contents

  1. Introduction
  2. Global Warming Facts
  3. Positive Effects of Global Warming
    1. How Global Warming Helps Commerce
    2. Weather Related Deaths

Introduction

Fred, lets talk a bit about Global Warming.  

Fred:  Now your talking.   There are record heats, droughts and rain fall everywhere.  Its obvious its man made global warming in action.   We have never had weather fluctuations like this before.

Well Fred what about the drought conditions which began in 1930 and peaked between 1934 and 1936 from Texas to Canada.   The spring before the heat wave, historic flooding occurred in the northeastern U.S.  A combination of deep snow and excessive rains brought record crests on all major rivers in the region.  The floods caused 107 deaths with damage totaling over $200 million dollars--a huge sum in 1936.  Two years later, the Long Island-New England hurricane smashed into parts of the same area devastated by the floods killing another 700 and producing over 300 million in damage.    Link     All these things happened before Carbon was very high and as a matter of fact were at the levels that environmentalists feel we should be.

Fred:  That was just natural causes but today it man-made global warming for sure.

Yea, right...  So lets take a closer look

 

Global Warming Facts

New NASA Data Blow Gaping Hole In Global Warming Alarmism by James Taylor, Jul 27, 2011  NASA satellite data from the years 2000 through 2011 show the Earth's atmosphere is allowing far more heat to be released into space than alarmist computer models have predicted, reports a new study in the peer-reviewed science journal Remote Sensing. The study indicates far less future global warming will occur than United Nations computer models have predicted, and supports prior studies indicating increases in atmospheric carbon dioxidetrap far less heat than alarmists have claimed. ...

Scientists on all sides of the global warming debate are in general agreement about how much heat is being directly trapped by human emissions of carbon dioxide (the answer is "not much"). However, the single most important issue in the global warming debate is whether carbon dioxide emissions will indirectly trap far more heat by causing large increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds. Alarmist computer models assume human carbon dioxide emissions indirectly cause substantial increases in atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds (each of which are very effective at trapping heat), but real-world data have long shown that carbon dioxide emissions are not causing as much atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds as the alarmist computer models have predicted.

The new NASA Terra satellite data are consistent with long-term NOAA and NASA data indicating atmospheric humidity and cirrus clouds are not increasing in the manner predicted by alarmist computer models. The Terra satellite data also support data collected by NASA's ERBS satellite showing far more longwave radiation (and thus, heat) escaped into space between 1985 and 1999 than alarmist computer models had predicted. Together, the NASA ERBS and Terra satellite data show that for 25 years and counting, carbon dioxide emissions have directly and indirectly trapped far less heat than alarmist computer models have predicted.

Environmental Effects of Increase Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

Atmospheric temperature is regulated by the sun which fluctuates in activity as shown above by the greenhouse effect largely caused by atmospheric water vapor (H2O) and by other phenomena that are more poorly understood.   While major greenhouse gas H2O substantially warms the Earth minor greenhouse gases such as CO2 have little effect as shown.  The 6-fold increase in hydrocarbon use since 1940 has had not noticeable effect on atmosphere, temperature or on the trend in glacier length.     

Thirty Years of Warmer Temperatures Go Poof  by Lorne Gunter  October 21, 2008    For nearly 30 years, Professor Christy has been in charge of NASA's eight weather satellites that take more than 300,000 temperature readings daily around the globe. In a paper co-written with Dr. Douglass, he concludes that while manmade emissions may be having a slight impact, "variations in global temperatures since 1978 ... cannot be attributed to carbon dioxide." 

Mathematical Proof Greenhouse Warming may be Impossible

The Epicycles of Global Warming   by James Lewis   March 10, 2008   Ferenc M. Miskolczi  (pronounced Ferens MISkolshee), a first-rate Hungarian mathematician, who has  published a proof that "greenhouse warming" may be mathematically impossible. His proof involves long equations, but the bottom line is that the warming models assume that the atmosphere is infinitely thick. Why? Because it  simplifies the math. If on the other hand, you assume the atmosphere is about 100 km thick (about 65 miles) -- which has the big advantage of being true -- the greenhouse effect disappears!   Link   Link 2    Miklós Zágoni isn't just a physicist and environmental researcher.  He is also a global warming activist and Hungary's most outspoken supporter of the Kyoto Protocol. Or was. 

No Greenhouse Signature per Top Australian Scientist

No smoking hot spot  by David Evans  July 18, 2008  
  1. The greenhouse signature is missing. We have been looking and measuring for years, and cannot find it. Each possible cause of global warming has a different pattern of where in the planet the warming occurs first and the most. The signature of an increased greenhouse effect is a hot spot about 10km up in the atmosphere over the tropics. We have been measuring the atmosphere for decades using radiosondes: weather balloons with thermometers that radio back the temperature as the balloon ascends through the atmosphere. They show no hot spot. Whatsoever. If there is no hot spot then an increased greenhouse effect is not the cause of global warming. So we know for sure that carbon emissions are not a significant cause of the global warming. If we had found the greenhouse signature then I would be an alarmist again.  ...
  2. There is no evidence to support the idea that carbon emissions cause significant global warming. None. There is plenty of evidence that global warming has occurred, and theory suggests that carbon emissions should raise temperatures (though by how much is hotly disputed) but there are no observations by anyone that implicate carbon emissions as a significant cause of the recent global warming.
  3. The satellites that measure the world's temperature all say that the warming trend ended in 2001, and that the temperature has dropped about 0.6C in the past year (to the temperature of 1980). Land-based temperature readings are corrupted by the "urban heat island" effect: urban areas encroaching on thermometer stations warm the micro-climate around the thermometer, due to vegetation changes, concrete, cars, houses. Satellite data is the only temperature data we can trust, but it only goes back to 1979. NASA reports only land-based data, and reports a modest warming trend and recent cooling. The other three global temperature records use a mix of satellite and land measurements, or satellite only, and they all show no warming since 2001 and a recent cooling.
  4. The new ice cores show that in the past six global warmings over the past half a million years, the temperature rises occurred on average 800 years before the accompanying rise in atmospheric carbon. Which says something important about which was cause and which was effect.

None of these points are controversial. The alarmist scientists agree with them, though they would dispute their relevance.    

Solar wind weakest since beginning of space age  at Breitbart.com  September 24, 2008   The intensity of the sun's million-mile-per-hour solar wind has dropped to its lowest levels since accurate records began half a century ago, scientists say.

Measurements of the cosmic blasts of radiation, ejected from the sun's upper atmosphere, were made with the Ulysses spacecraft, a joint mission between NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA).

The solar wind "inflates a protective bubble, or heliosphere, around the solar system," which protects the inner planets against the radiation from other stars, said Dave McComas, Ulysses' solar wind principal investigator and senior executive director at the Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas.

"With the solar wind at an all-time low, there is an excellent chance the heliosphere will diminish in size and strength," said Ed Smith, NASA's Ulysses project scientist at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California.

"If that occurs, more galactic cosmic rays will make it into the inner part of our solar system," added Smith      

Past Climate Change at the US EPA  Changes in the shape of the Earth's orbit (or eccentricity) as well as the Earth's tilt and precession affect the amount of sunlight received on the Earth's surface. These orbital processes -- which function in cycles of 100,000 (eccentricity), 41,000 (tilt), and 19,000 to 23,000 (precession) years -- are thought to be the most significant drivers of ice ages according to the theory of Mulitin Milankovitch, a Serbian mathematician (1879-1958). The National Aeronautics and Space Administration's (NASA) Earth Observatory offers additional information about orbital variations and the Milankovitch Theory.     

Problems with Surface Temperature Data   by Dr Vincent Gray

It is quite impossible to obtain a statistically or scientifically acceptable estimate of mean global temperature or its variability over time, from readings on the earth’s surface, for the following reasons:

  •  Random distribution of measuring equipment is impossible, and thus, so is a truly global average of known accuracy.

  •  Continuous temperature measurement in any one location has only been possible recently. For a longer record “Mean Daily Temperature”, must be used. This consists of the mean of the maximum and minimum temperature over a variable 24 hour period, which does not even usually refer to a standard day. Such a measurement gives only a biased average, of unknown accuracy, even at a single site.

  •  There is no quality control system for weather station and ship-based measurements. Few aspects of the process are standardized, even within a single country. Differences and changes in instruments, shelter, location, distance from buildings and vegetation are seldom studies or allowed for.

  •  Measurement sites suffer from discontinuity of location and variability in numbers and thus in the extent of global coverage (100 weather stations in 1850, 8000 in 1980, 3000 today), as well as gaps in records.

  •  Attempts to correct for some of these sources of error are largely confined to the continental USA.  In most countries there are too few sites for comparison purposes, and methods developed in one country may not be valid elsewhere.

  •  The oceans constitute 71% of the earth’s surface but temperature measurements at sea have even greater potential errors than measurements on land.

  •  Weather data are considered commercial and are often not generally available to the public without a fee. The details of processing of the data are not made available to independent observers or “peer reviewers.”

7000 Year Climate Record Shows Century-Long Droughts in North America and 1500 Year Solar Cycle   by Paul via Jennifer Marohasy's blog   August 20, 2008   A stalagmite in a West Virginia cave has yielded the most detailed geological record to date on climate cycles in eastern North America over the past 7,000 years. The new study confirms that during periods when Earth received less solar radiation, the Atlantic Ocean cooled, icebergs increased and precipitation fell, creating a series of century-long droughts.

A research team led by Ohio University geologist Gregory Springer examined the trace metal strontium and carbon and oxygen isotopes in the stalagmite, which preserved climate conditions averaged over periods as brief as a few years. The scientists found evidence of at least seven major drought periods during the Holocene era, according to an article published online in the journal Geophysical Research Letters.  

 

Clouds Cause Temperature Change

Global warming forecast: Partly cloudy    by Doyle Rice, USA TODAY  June 19, 2008  A new study finds that natural variations in how clouds form could actually be causing temperature changes, rather than the other way around, and could also lead to overestimates of how sensitive the Earth's climate is to greenhouse gas emissions.   ...   Spencer and his co-author William Braswell point out that the paper doesn't disprove the theory that humans are causing global warming. Instead, they report that "it offers an alternative explanation for what we see in the climate system which has the potential for greatly reducing estimates of mankind's impact on Earth's climate."  

Error in NASA Data on Hottest Year

The Unholy Alliance that manufactured Global Warming   by Dr. Tim Ball   May 21, 2008   An error was found in the NASA GISS data and when corrected made 1934 hottest year on record, not 1998; 1921, became the third hottest year on record not 2006; three of the five hottest years on record occurred before 1940; Six of the top 10 hottest years occurred prior to 90 percent of the growth in human produced greenhouse gas emissions during the last century. If it was a genuine error then somebody should be fired, if it wasn’t there are more serious implications. Suspicions are raised by a pattern of ‘adjustments’ that make earlier years cooler thus making more recent years warmer.  

Hurricanes

NOAA: Global Warming Means Fewer, Not More Hurricanes  at NewsMax.com  May 19, 2008   A new model simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity for the last two decades of this century projects fewer hurricanes overall, but a slight increase in intensity for hurricanes that do occur. Hurricanes are also projected to have more intense rainfall, on average, in the future.  

Increased Hurricane Losses Due to More People, Wealth Along Coastlines, Not Stronger Storms, New Study Says  by NOAA  February 22, 2008   A team of scientists have found that the economic damages from hurricanes have increased in the U.S. over time due to greater population, infrastructure, and wealth on the U.S.  coastlines, and not to any spike in the number or intensity of hurricanes.  “We found that although some decades were quieter and less damaging in the U.S. and others had more land-falling hurricanes and more damage, the economic costs of land-falling hurricanes have steadily increased over time,” said Chris Landsea, one of the researchers as well as the science and operations officer at NOAA’s National Hurricane Center in Miami. “There is nothing in the U.S. hurricane damage record that indicates global warming has caused a significant increase in destruction along our coasts.”   

Cosmic Rays Responsible for most Climate Change

Limited role for C02 by Lawrence Solomon  at the Financial Post   February 02, 2007  Dr. Nir Shaviv, an Astrophysicist reconstructed the temperature on Earth over the past 550 million years to find that cosmic ray flux variations explain more than two-thirds of Earth's temperature variance, making it the most dominant climate driver over geological time scales. The study also found that an upper limit can be placed on the relative role of CO2 as a climate driver, meaning that a large fraction of the global warming witnessed over the past century could not be due to CO2 -- instead it is attributable to the increased solar activity.    

The Great Global Warming Hoax?   Canadian climatologist Tim Patterson says the sun drives the earth's climate changes—and Earth's current global warming is a direct result of a long, moderate 1,500-year cycle in the sun's irradiance.  Patterson says he learned of the 1,500-year climate cycle while studying cycles in fish numbers on Canada's West Coast.  ...  

"Even though the sun is brighter now than at any time in the past 8,000 years, the increase in direct solar input is not calculated to be sufficient to cause the past century's modest warming on its own. There had to be an amplifier of some sort for the sun to be a primary driver of climate changes. Indeed, that is precisely what has been discovered," says Patterson.

"In a series of groundbreaking scientific papers starting in 2000, Vizer, Shaviv, Carslaw and most recently Svensmark et al., have collectively demonstrated that as the output of the sun varies ... varying amounts of galactic cosmic rays from deep space are able to enter our solar system... These cosmic rays enhance cloud formation, which, overall, has a cooling effect on the planet."

"When the sun is less bright, more cosmic rays are able to get through to Earth's atmosphere, more clouds form and the planet cools... This is precisely what happened from the middle of the 17th century into the early 18th century, when the solar energy input to our atmosphere ... was at a minimum and the planet was stuck in the Little Ice Age."   The Canadian expert concludes, "CO2 variations show little correlation with our planet's climate on long, medium and even short time scales.  Instead, Earth's sea surface temperatures show a massive 95 percent lagged correlation with the sunspot index."  We'll talk about what a "correlation" means in a couple of minutes.  

Why Ground Measurements are Bias

Climate change “isn’t happening”   at Tenerife News  most temperatures are recorded in urban areas where microclimates can be warmer, and the reduction of the number of stations at high latitudes since the collapse of the USSR, both of which could bias data upwards.     

Faster Temperature Rise Than the last Century

Environmental extremism must be put in its place in the climate debate  by Dr. Tim Ball & Tom Harris   January 9, 2008  Professor Tim Patterson of Carleton University, in Ottawa pointed out last year in the Financial Post that “Ten thousand years ago, while the world was coming out of the thousand-year-long “Younger Dryas” cold episode, temperatures rose as much as 6 degrees C in a decade—100 times faster than the past century’s 0.6 degrees C warming that has so upset environmentalists.”  Happening as it did before the dawn of civilization, it was, of course, entirely natural.   

How does the earth cool?

Global Warming: Has the Climate Sensitivity Holy Grail Been Found?   by Roy W. Spencer, Ph.D.  June 29, 2008   When the Earth warms, it emits more infrared radiation to outer space. This natural cooling mechanism is the same effect you feel at a distance from a hot stove. The hotter anything gets the more infrared energy it loses to its surroundings.  

Ocean Temperature Affects Most Warming

NASA measures global temperatures  at American Thinker  April 25, 2008 Josh Willis at NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory says the oceans are what really matter when it comes to global warming.

In fact, 80 percent to 90 percent of global warming involves heating up ocean waters. They hold much more heat than the atmosphere can. So Willis has been studying the ocean with a fleet of robotic instruments called the Argo system. The buoys can dive 3,000 feet down and measure ocean temperature. Since the system was fully deployed in 2003, it has recorded no warming of the global oceans. "There has been a very slight cooling..."     

Aerosols over Asia Melting Himalayas

Brown clouds boost global warming  by Daniel Cressey  at Nature News  August 1, 2007   Aerosols over Asia incriminated in Himalayan glacial melting.  Using data from unmanned aircraft flying through 'brown clouds' of aerosol pollution over the Indian Ocean, US researchers found the zone of the atmosphere containing the clouds is warming by 0.25 ºC, compared with 0.10 ºC per decade at ground level.   The Himalayas and the clouds occupy the same zone of the atmosphere, so the extra warming could be accelerating glacial retreat.  

Global Warming Signature not Present

In Science, Ignorance is not Bliss  by Walter Cunningham     Warming in the upper atmosphere should occur before any surface warming effect, but NASA’s own data show that has not been happening. Global temperature readings—accurate to 0.1 degree Celsius—are gathered by orbiting satellites. Interestingly, in the 18 years those satellites have been recording global temperatures, they have actually shown a slight decrease in average temperatures.  

Sunspots reaching 1,000-year high   by Dr David Whitehouse BBC News Online science editor  July 6, 2004   A new analysis shows that the Sun is more active now than it has been at anytime in the previous 1,000 years.  Scientists based at the Institute for Astronomy in Zurich used ice cores from Greenland to construct a picture of our star's activity in the past.  They say that over the last century the number of sunspots rose at the same time that the Earth's climate became steadily warmer.   

Critic takes longer view of warming   by Ned Rozell at Alaska Science  April 1, 2007   Akasofu recently gave a talk at the International Arctic Research Center in which he presented evidence for how the world has warmed in a steady fashion from well before the Industrial Revolution to the current day.  "If you look back far enough, we have a bunch of data that show that warming has gone on from the 1600s with an almost linear increase to the present," Akasofu said.   He showed ice-core data from the Russian Arctic that show warming starting from the early 1700s, temperature records from England showing the same trend back to 1660 and ice breakup dates at Tallinn, Estonia, that show a general warming since the year 1500.   ...   Akasofu said there is no data showing that "most" of the present warming is due to the man-made greenhouse effect, as the members of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change wrote in February.   

Volcano's Influence on Cooling

A Closer Look at Volcanic Activity   by Eugenio Hackbart / MetSul Meteorologia   There is not doubt the lack of volcanic activity played a major role in the warming trend of the last decade. ICECAP’s Joseph D’Aleo explained in a recent article* how volcanoes contributed to multidecadal temperature variability since the 19th century.   

How Volcanism Affects Climate  by Joe D’Aleo, CCM   Climatologists may disagree on how much the recent global warming is natural or man-made but there is general agreement that volcanism constitutes a wildcard in climate, producing significant global scale cooling for at least a few years following a major eruption. 

 

Positive Effects of Global Warming

Always look on the bright side of global disaster by Sean Thomas 11/20/07   Benny Peiser, a social anthropologist at Liverpool John Moores University, takes an even broader perspective: "From a purely evolutionary point of view, warm periods have been exceptionally good to mankind. Cold periods have been the troublesome ages."   

How Global Warming Helps Commerce

Forests in the Eastern United States are growing faster than they have in the past 225 years   Watts Up With That?  February 3rd, 2010   From the Smithsonian Environmental Research Center blog:

“The chief culprit appears to be climate change, more specifically, the rising levels of atmospheric CO2, higher temperatures and longer growing seasons.”

This jibes well with what NASA has been seeing globally via satellite measurements:

Surprise: Earths’ Biosphere is Booming, Satellite Data Suggests CO2 the Cause

And what has been found by the University of Wisconsin in Madison:

Greenhouse gas carbon dioxide ramps up aspen growth

Will Media Expose Global Warming Con Job?  by Jerry  Carlson February 1, 2008  Agronomic research shows that doubling atmospheric CO2 levels to about 700 parts per million raises corn and soybean yields 20% to 40%. We see more opportunity in using  CO2 for higher crop yields than in burying it under the sea floor. Greenhouses commonly enrich their atmospheres with carbon dioxide.  Historically, advances in civilizations have accompanied warmer, wetter epochs in climate cycles.  Dr. Raymond H. Wheeler and hundreds of research assistants documented this with a lifetime of analysis beginning in the 1930s. If the climate follows Wheeler's cyclical pattern, we may well be entering a warmer, wetter epoch which will benefit agriculture.  

Nature, Not Human Activity, Rules the Climate by  Fred Singer  2008   Beneficial economic effects of warmer temperatures include longer growing seasons in temperate climates, benefitting agriculture and forestry industries, lower heating bills, and lower construction costs.  

A Cold Spell Soon to Replace Global Warming  by Oleg Sorokhtin  1-03-08   The mean temperature of the planet is about 54 degrees. Humans -- and most of the crops and animals we depend on -- prefer a temperature closer to 70.   

Always look on the bright side of global disaster by Sean Thomas 11/20/07 

  1. Vast tracts of land - in Siberia and Canada, in Tibet and elsewhere - are at present too cold for widespread cultivation and settlement. With global warming these regions of the earth will, presumably, become fruitful.  
  2. Thomas Moore, a prominent economist at Sanford University thinks A warmer world will also need less fuel for heating. And crop failures might become a thing of the past at higher latitudes.
  3. Likewise, climatologist Bjorn Lomberg has talked about the upside, when those vast northerly areas (Canada and Siberia, etc) become cultivatable.
  4. The Arctic Council is another authority seeing benefits in a warmer planet. Oil and gas deposits hidden under ice will become accessible. Previously frozen sea lanes will open up: it is estimated that the sea-journey from Tokyo to London will be reduced by twelve days. The fabled Northwest passage, over the top of Canada, will finally be a reality. Grass has already started growing in the Antarctic, for the first time in many thousands of years.
  5. There's more. Storms may become more widespread, but extra rainfall could benefit drought-stricken areas. In other regions, marshes will dry out and become lucrative farmland.

Global Warming Good for Greenland?   by James Owen for National Geographic News   October 17, 2007

  1. In southwestern Greenland, for example, the grass-growing season gets longer each year, boosting productivity for some 60 sheep farms now established in the region. Up to 23,500 sheep and lambs are slaughtered annually. 
  2. Dairy cattle have recently been reintroduced, and a government-led project is expected to yield 29,058 gallons (110,000 liters) of milk annually, according to the new report.
  3. Locally grown potatoes have appeared in supermarkets, alongside broccoli and other vegetables never before cultivated in Greenland.
  4. Commercial fishermen are anticipating bumper cod catches after the fish recently moved north into Greenland's waters. Halibut are also increasing in size.
  5. Greenland's melting ice cap has triggered a rush for diamonds, gold, and other metals as mining companies prospect previously covered mineral-rich rocks.
  6. Oil companies have negotiated rights to explore for oil and natural gas along the Greenlandic coastline. The island may also be swept up in the scramble to claim the Arctic seafloor and its oil wealth.

 

Weather Related Deaths

Fall in weather deaths dents climate warnings  by David Smith    December 2, 2007    GREEN scientists have been accused of overstating the dangers of climate change by researchers who found that the number of people killed each year by weather-related disasters is falling.  Their report suggests that a central plank in the global warming argument – that it will result in a big increase in deaths from weather-related disasters – is undermined by the facts. It shows deaths in such disasters peaked in the 1920s and have been declining ever since.  Average annual deaths from weather-related events in the period 1990-2006 – considered by scientists to be when global warming has been most intense – were down by 87% on the 1900-89 average. The mortality rate from catastrophes, measured in deaths per million people, dropped by 93%.   Link

‘Feel Good’ vs. ‘Do Good’ on Climate   by John Tierney   September 11, 2007   Winter can be deadlier than summer. About seven times more deaths in Europe are attributed annually to cold weather (which aggravates circulatory and respiratory illness) than to hot weather, Dr. Lomborg notes, pointing to studies showing that a warmer planet would mean fewer temperature-related deaths in Europe and worldwide.   Link

Always look on the bright side of global disaster by Sean Thomas 11/20/07   Thomas Moore, a prominent economist at Sanford University has  studied the potential impact of global warning and shown that death rates might actually decrease - as bronchitis, influenza, and other cold-weather ailments decline.  Link

Shilling for global warming in the dark   by Judi McLeod   February 20, 2008   http://www.freerepublic.com/ reports British scientists as saying global warming could end up saving thousands of lives.  Although global warming could end up causing about 6,000 deaths, that is a dramatic decrease from the average of 20,000 deaths that the cold winters in Great Britain cause.  The British government has reported that the warmer weather has already resulted in a 3 percent decline in the mortality rate.  Discovery Magazine has a similar article called “Global Warming, The Great Life Saver”. ( http://www.dailylobo.com/, Jan. 18, 2008).   Link

Going Down: Death Rates Due to Extreme Weather Events  May 7, 2008    Indur Goklany examines the worldwide trends  and makes some surprising discoveries base of examining data from the World Health Organization, NOAA, and other sources.   ...   The most telling graph is the first one in the paper: